The Forecasting Moving Average indicator runs on MT4 (Metatrader 4) and forecasts future Forex prices with the help of a custom-built moving average.
The indicator pops up in the main MT4 chart window as a purple colored moving average.
The yellow part of the MA predicts future trend direction.
Trade Logic
- The trend is considered to be moving higher if the yellow colored MA part is moving upwards.
- The trend is considered to be moving lower if the yellow colored MA part is moving downwards.
The Forecasting Moving Average indicator can be used for both trade entry and exit, or as an additional confirmation filter for other strategies and systems.
The indicator performs equally well on all currency pairs (majors, minors, and exotics) and yields promising results when used correctly.
Free Download
Download the “forecasting-indicator.ex4” indicator for MT4
Indicator Chart (EUR/USD M30)
The example chart below displays the Forecasting Moving Average mt4 indicator in action on the trading chart.
Tips:
Feel free to use your own favorite trade entry, stop loss and take profit method to trade with the Forecasting Moving Average indicator.
As always, trade in agreement with the overall trend and practice on a demo account first until you fully understand this indicator.
Please note that even the best trading indicator cannot yield a 100% win rate over long periods.
Indicator Specifications & Inputs:
Trading Platform: Developed for Metatrader 4 (MT4)
Currency pairs: Works for any pair
Time frames: Works for any time frame
Trade Style: Works for scalping, day trading and swing trading
Input Parameters: Variable (inputs tab), color settings & style
Indicator type: Moving average
Does the indicator repaint? No.
MT4 Trading Strategy: Forecasting Moving Average + Volatility Hyper Trend
This strategy uses the Forecasting Moving Average Indicator together with the Volatility Hyper Trend Indicator to identify high-probability intraday trades.
The Forecasting Moving Average is bullish when the price stays above its purple line and bearish when the price drops below.
The Volatility Hyper Trend provides an additional filter: it is bullish when the green line crosses above the red line and bearish when the blue line sits above the green line.
This indicator also gives arrows directly on the chart — blue arrows mark potential buy setups, and red arrows show potential sell setups.
Combining both indicators helps traders filter out weak signals and enter only the strongest moves on 5-minute, 15-minute, or 30-minute charts.
Buy Entry Rules
- Price must be trading above the purple Forecasting Moving Average line.
- The green line of the Volatility Hyper Trend must be above the red line, confirming bullish conditions.
- Preferably, a blue arrow from the Volatility Hyper Trend appears on the chart to signal entry.
- Enter a buy order at the close of the confirming candle.
- Place a stop loss a few pips below the nearest swing low or below the purple Forecasting Moving Average.
- Set take profit at the next resistance level, channel top, or using a fixed pip target (for example, 15–25 pips depending on volatility).
Sell Entry Rules
- Price must be trading below the purple Forecasting Moving Average line.
- The blue line of the Volatility Hyper Trend must be above the green line, confirming bearish conditions.
- Preferably, a red arrow from the Volatility Hyper Trend appears on the chart to signal entry.
- Enter a sell order at the close of the confirming candle.
- Place a stop loss a few pips above the nearest swing high or above the purple Forecasting Moving Average.
- Set take profit at the next support level, channel bottom, or using a fixed pip target (for example, 15–25 pips depending on volatility).
Advantages
- Combines trend direction (Forecasting Moving Average) with volatility-based confirmation (Volatility Hyper Trend) for higher accuracy.
- Clear color and arrow signals make it easy to identify entries quickly.
- Effective on short intraday timeframes for scalping or fast day trading.
- Flexible take profit approach using either fixed pips or support/resistance levels.
Drawbacks
- May produce false signals during flat or extremely low-volatility markets.
- Requires watching multiple conditions (lines + arrows) before entry.
- Less suitable for long-term holding trades due to its intraday nature.
- Needs discipline to avoid early entries before confirmation.
Case Study 1: AUD/USD on 15-Minute Chart
During the London session, the price was trading above the purple Forecasting Moving Average.
The green line of the Volatility Hyper Trend crossed above the red line, and a blue arrow appeared.
A buy trade was taken at 0.6625.
The recent swing low was at 0.6615, placing the stop loss at 0.6612 (13 pips risk).
The next resistance level stood at 0.6648, which was used as the take profit target.
Price moved steadily upward and reached the target, giving a 23-pip profit.
Case Study 2: EUR/GBP on 5-Minute Chart
During the New York session, the price moved below the purple Forecasting Moving Average.
The blue line of the Volatility Hyper Trend held above the green line, and a red arrow appeared.
A sell order was opened at 0.8598.
The recent swing high was at 0.8609, placing the stop loss at 0.8611 (13 pips risk).
The next support area was 0.8580, which was used as the take profit target.
Price dropped quickly and hit the target, resulting in an 18-pip profit.
Strategy Tips
- Stick to major pairs during active market sessions for stronger moves and lower spreads.
- Always wait for both the line conditions and an arrow confirmation before entering.
- Use nearby support or resistance for take profit instead of a fixed risk-to-reward to adapt to changing market conditions.
- Consider trailing your stop once the price moves in your favor to lock in profits.
- Avoid trading around major news releases when volatility spikes unexpectedly.
Download Now
Download the “forecasting-indicator.ex4” indicator for Metatrader 4
